The era of market globalization is over. The Leviathan awakened in 2008 with the financial crisis, spread in 2020 with the COVID-19, divided the world in 2022 along the frontlines of the Russia-Ukraine war, and reached its peak in 2025 with the rise of US trade tariffs. We entered a new era of sovereignty.
Sovereignties can differ: (1) territorial, political, military, tech; (2) economic, energy, monetary, fiscal.
We’ll see on whether the government prefers tech or fiscal sovereignty. Tech sovereignty is about how to protect tech autonomy and data infrastructure; fiscal sovereignty is about how to respond to the economic and other challenges with available resources.
Based on data for the top 20 innovative nations, as ranked in the 2025 Global Innovation Index, we got some insights.
- Tech vs. fiscal sovereignty: unity or dualism?
We found weak correlations between tech and fiscal national indicators . They act independently. We can debate their relation on the micro level through tech companies' tax contributions, tech support for the fiscal process, digital services taxes, and so on. However, the macro-data indicate that their dualism prevails over the relation: different aims, power, budgets.
- Interventions decrease economic growth.
The increase in government expenditures slows economic growth in innovative nations (evidence of a negative correlation). We can assume that the state aims to achieve non-productive and non-fiscal goals, likely focusing on other targets, likely tech ones. But when a nation faces a budget deficit, the research and development (R&D) expenses are no longer a priority (a correlation of -0.5).
- R&D is closer to the military than to the economy.
Our findings show that R&D expenses are more closely tied to military ones than to economic indicators. The correlation between R&D expenditures to GDP and military expenses to GDP is high (0.64), and higher than with economic growth (-0.2), and GDP per capita (-0.24).
- E-gov prioritized over R&D.
Fiscal indicators, such as tax burden, tax-to-budget income, budget deficit, public debt, and even the shadow economy, are more closely linked to e-gov expenses rather than to R&D expenses. We can assume that innovative nations focus on e-gov as a fiscal instrument, rather than aiming at tech sovereignty.
- Debt prioritized over innovations.
Innovation expenses to GDP and the value of the 2025 Global Innovation Index have a poor correlation (below 0.1) with the public debt to GDP. It appears that nations tend to view innovations as risky endeavors and are hesitant to utilize public debt to support them.
The winner in the era of sovereignty is fiscal. Yes, it’s a case-by-case scenario that depends on the lobby, the minister’s weight, current challenges, short-term security, military, and financial priorities over long-term innovations. But, it’s not tech.
